Again, please note that “straw man” is a completely inappropriate term here. A straw man argument is when person A claims that person B has said something that person B never said, and proceeds to tear apart that easily attacked argument. I’ve never created a straw man, never claimed any argument on your part that I’m refuting. You claimed the Kindle was a good risk (and have done so repeatedly). I’m arguing that I don’t agree. You may think my arguments incorrect or even foolish, but they are certainly not straw man arguments. More here.

you responded directly in part but also came back with the Apple will rule the world of ebooks argument, which doesn’t have anything to do with whether Amazon will continue supporting Kindle or your original PFS and HD-DVD citations.

I think it’s directly relevant. HD-DVD was a leading technology, supported widely (note that Microsoft favored it over Blue-Ray). Now they’ve stopped supporting it. Plays-For-Sure was a widespread ecosystem created by the overwhelming market leader in the computing field and supported by a wide variety of partners. Neither is supported any more. Both serve as examples that new technology, even market-leading technologies, are often fleeting and replaced. Because you happen to like the Kindle and think it’s a good value does not mean it will not meet the same fate. I’m sure subscribers to MSN Music and HD-DVD buyers were also quite satisfied with their purchases as well. I could also be wrong, the Kindle may rule literature for the next 100 years. Time will tell.

It’s worth buying a Kindle and Kindle-DRMed books now because ownership is overrated and because the Kindle is a good value for avid book readers.

And that’s your opinion, and for the type of reading you and Kent do, it makes sense. I edit and publish scientific manuals, monographs and journals for a living. These are books one is going to keep for decades and refer back to constantly. The lack of color, the poor navigation and the unlikeliness of any Kindle file lasting ten years makes it a bad product for my needs and the needs of my customers. On a personal note, I just finished re-reading a paperback I had originally bought and read in 1992. I’m not sure that a Kindle book I buy today will be as readable in 2026. That paperback, however, will be.

There is no way to buy electronic versions of current, popular books without DRM. There is no DRM-free substitute available. Are you saying you don’t buy any business software, video games or iPhone apps because they all have DRM? How long are you going to wait? In the meantime, your opportunity “cost” of not using software and playing games and using apps mounts. If anything software and computer game DRMs have been getting more annoying and restrictive over time, so you may be waiting forever.

True, getting DRM-free e-books is difficult (although there are some out there, and lots in the public domain). But paper and ink books are a perfectly good substitute for my needs. I continued buying CDs instead of iTunes downloads until they dropped the DRM, which worked out well for me (I got higher quality tracks as a bonus and a hard copy as backup). I’ll do the same here. And no, I don’t buy any video games, all the iPhone apps I have so far are free apps. I do have some software that is restricted but I don’t pay for that, my company does, and I go for the unencumbered programs when an equivalent is available (just like I’m doing with e-books). I’d argue that DRM is dying, not growing stronger. Look at the music market.

You may be right on Apple not entering the market. So far, they’re playing it smart and instead asking for a piece of everyone else’s business rather than creating their own. But you can substitute many other companies in for Apple. Sony Plastic Logic as just two examples. If the Kindle fails, Amazon will become a reseller for ebooks for those platforms.

You have your facts confused about the terms of Amazon’s payments to publishers.

Actually, no, my facts were correct and I specifically limited the statement to subscription products, much like the many journals published by readers of this blog. Amazon keeps 70% of the revenue from any subscription product like a blog or a newspaper. As a journal publisher, there’s no way I’m giving up 70% of my revenue to a reseller. And even worse, they demand the right to republish the content to other devices. Sorry, no, that’s a terrible deal for bloggers and for publishers. As for books, Amazon’s attempts to enforce a $9.99 price for Kindle books won’t work for us either. We sell books with high editorial overhead to a relatively small market and won’t be able to cover our costs at that pricepoint.

Just what split Apple would seek from book publishers is a complete unknown. As you may have seen in the music and television areas, Apple’s negotiations with big content producers have been fraught with conflict.

Apple has been very consistent with their cut of the deal, both for music and for apps in the iTunes store. Neither has seen a change in what Apple gets paid on each sale since their inception. The conflicts have been more about the producers wanting flexible pricing and Apple refusing.

And after all of this, you’re still assuming that Amazon would kill the Kindle program in the face of tough competition from Apple. I just don’t see it. People buying a Kindle device now are already choosing to pay for something that they could do in part for free on an iPhone or iPod Touch. And still it’s selling out every few weeks and analysts are saying it’s a multi-billion dollar revenue stream for Amazon within three years.

No, I assume nothing. I’m just pointing out that a nascent technology in an unestablished market is a risky investment, no matter how successful it is at first, and no matter who is backing it. Since Amazon refuses to release sales figures, the sell-outs are completely meaningless and could be more about problems in their supply chain than popularity. It may indeed be a smashing success. Or something new could replace it tomorrow. Me, I’ll wait a while. Nothing the Kindle offers is compelling enough for me to make the investment, none of it overcomes the DRM restrictions and there are perfectly serviceable alternatives available. Your needs may differ from mine as does your risk assessment.

On your straw man, we started this when some here said Amazon will never abandon Kindle and you said they would citing the examples of PlaysForSure and HD-DVD. When I responded to those examples, you responded directly in part but also came back with the Apple will rule the world of ebooks argument, which doesn’t have anything to do with whether Amazon will continue supporting Kindle or your original PFS and HD-DVD citations.

I mentioned the CURRENT REALITY of the ebook market as a factor in making a risk assessment of buying into a DRM scheme. You’re so deep in the weeds that you’re missing the big picture, as Kent started out saying. It’s worth buying a Kindle and Kindle-DRMed books now because ownership is overrated and because the Kindle is a good value for avid book readers.

Your risk assessment is off-base. There is no way to buy electronic versions of current, popular books without DRM. There is no DRM-free substitute available. Are you saying you don’t buy any business software, video games or iPhone apps because they all have DRM? How long are you going to wait? In the meantime, your opportunity “cost” of not using software and playing games and using apps mounts. If anything software and computer game DRMs have been getting more annoying and restrictive over time, so you may be waiting forever.

I can’t face repeating all the reasons this Apple/ebook dominance meme is wrong (see the blog post http://gravitationalpull.net/wp/?p=390). Your speculation that Apple would pull competing ereaders seems far-fetched in the extreme. There’s no precedent for it, it would not pass antitrust scrutiny and it would infuriate literally millions of customers who have bought books in Scrollmotion, Kindle, eReader and other formats. Apple started out barring competing web browsers from the get-go — that’s a far cry from banning an entire category of apps after they’ve already been available for a year. I have not heard of an example of Apple pulling an iPhone app because it wanted to launch its own version.

You have your facts confused about the terms of Amazon’s payments to publishers. As has been widely reported, Amazon pays big publishers the same royalties they pay on hardcover books, usually about 50% of the retail cover price. Since Amazon is discounting Kindle books — often by more than half the retail hardcover price — Amazon is paying publishers almost all the revenue, or in some cases, more than all the revenue. See, for example, http://www.publishersweekly.com/article/CA6657272.html

The 70/30 split you reference is for bloggers and was offered to and rejected by the Dallas Morning News. Self-publishing Kindle authors get a 35% split. See http://forums.digitaltextplatform.com/dtpforums/entry.jspa?externalID=2&categoryID=12

Just what split Apple would seek from book publishers is a complete unknown. As you may have seen in the music and television areas, Apple’s negotiations with big content producers have been fraught with conflict.

And after all of this, you’re still assuming that Amazon would kill the Kindle program in the face of tough competition from Apple. I just don’t see it. People buying a Kindle device now are already choosing to pay for something that they could do in part for free on an iPhone or iPod Touch. And still it’s selling out every few weeks and analysts are saying it’s a multi-billion dollar revenue stream for Amazon within three years.

Kindle is the dominant ebook format, Amazon is the leading ebook seller and the DRM works not just on the Kindle hardware but also on all iPhones and iPod Touches as well as more devices to come

I’m merely pointing out that there was a device that was the market leader for mp3 players before the iPod entered the fray, that Apple, given their current business practices, could easily pull all e-book reading apps from their store (their policy is not to allow any apps that duplicate the software Apple supplies themselves, so no alternative web browsers), and that Apple’s terms under the iTunes store (Apple keeps 30% of revenue) are a lot more favorable for authors and publishers than those being offered by Amazon in some areas (Amazon keeps 70% of blog or newspaper revenues). The risk may be greater than you think, and given the relatively low sales numbers of the Kindle, it’s not like a competitor would have much inertia to overcome.

Kindle costs like $350 new or $200 for a used one, includes free wireless Internet access and lets you buy ebooks for new hardcovers at far-below retail prices. Yes, there is some risk – I would call it minuscule or less – but the value is recovered in just a few years. Plus, as Kent so eloquently noted above, ownership of dead tree pulp is overrated.