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	<title>Comments on: Churn in the Book Space: Rational &amp; Irrational Behavior Among Book Publishers</title>
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	<link>http://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/2009/12/17/churn-in-the-book-space-rational-irrational-behavior-among-book-publishers/</link>
	<description>What&#039;s Hot &#38; What&#039;s Cooking in Scholarly Publishing - from the Society for Scholarly Publishing</description>
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		<title>By: Fighting Fire with Fire &#8212; The Only Remaining Option? &#171; The Scholarly Kitchen</title>
		<link>http://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/2009/12/17/churn-in-the-book-space-rational-irrational-behavior-among-book-publishers/#comment-6351</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Fighting Fire with Fire &#8212; The Only Remaining Option? &#171; The Scholarly Kitchen]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Jan 2010 10:21:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/?p=7409#comment-6351</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] Once again, I&#8217;ll harp on the cliche of &#8220;if you can&#8217;t beat &#8216;em, join &#8216;em.&#8221; With a shift as profound as this, systems like Google, Amazon, iTunes, Facebook, and the like are already eating our proverbial lunches. [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Once again, I&#8217;ll harp on the cliche of &#8220;if you can&#8217;t beat &#8216;em, join &#8216;em.&#8221; With a shift as profound as this, systems like Google, Amazon, iTunes, Facebook, and the like are already eating our proverbial lunches. [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Michael Clarke</title>
		<link>http://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/2009/12/17/churn-in-the-book-space-rational-irrational-behavior-among-book-publishers/#comment-6108</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Michael Clarke]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Dec 2009 02:31:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/?p=7409#comment-6108</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[That is a good example, yes. Though in this case, publishers would not so much be directing their ebook release policies explicitly at Amazon so much as setting some ground rules for the industry. If ebook purveyors--including Amazon--want to sell ebook editions of new titles at the same as hardcover, they would need to play by the rules and use open formats. Amazon, just like everyone else, would be able sell ebooks of current hardcover titles so long as they agree to sell in ePub format.

This would be transparent and fair to all storefronts and device makers, would be good for publishers (who would be able to maintain price controls), and it would be good for readers as they would be able to choose their preferred edition, storefront, and device. Moreover, such a groundrule would make it difficult for anyone to form a monopoly.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That is a good example, yes. Though in this case, publishers would not so much be directing their ebook release policies explicitly at Amazon so much as setting some ground rules for the industry. If ebook purveyors&#8211;including Amazon&#8211;want to sell ebook editions of new titles at the same as hardcover, they would need to play by the rules and use open formats. Amazon, just like everyone else, would be able sell ebooks of current hardcover titles so long as they agree to sell in ePub format.</p>
<p>This would be transparent and fair to all storefronts and device makers, would be good for publishers (who would be able to maintain price controls), and it would be good for readers as they would be able to choose their preferred edition, storefront, and device. Moreover, such a groundrule would make it difficult for anyone to form a monopoly.</p>
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		<title>By: David Crotty</title>
		<link>http://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/2009/12/17/churn-in-the-book-space-rational-irrational-behavior-among-book-publishers/#comment-6103</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[David Crotty]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Dec 2009 23:36:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/?p=7409#comment-6103</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This would be something like the music companies making DRM-free files available to many stores like Amazon&#039;s but not to iTunes, which helped them in their negotiations to get variable pricing from Apple.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This would be something like the music companies making DRM-free files available to many stores like Amazon&#8217;s but not to iTunes, which helped them in their negotiations to get variable pricing from Apple.</p>
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		<title>By: Michael Clarke</title>
		<link>http://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/2009/12/17/churn-in-the-book-space-rational-irrational-behavior-among-book-publishers/#comment-6102</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Michael Clarke]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Dec 2009 23:26:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/?p=7409#comment-6102</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I completely agree that now is the time to take on Amazon and ensure that they are not able to create a monopoly storefront for ebooks. 

However, the actions taken by Hatchett and Simon &amp; Schuster do nothing to further this aim. If the aim is to create a heterogeneous ebook ecosystem resistant to monopoly control, then publishers must reward those companies that employ technologies and practices that will lead to that outcome. 

As Dan points out above, publishers might do this by releasing ebooks only in ePub format to coincide with the launch of the hardcover edition. If Amazon doesn&#039;t wish to support ePub, so be it. Let them wait (in fact, let them wait even longer than 3 months). This will provide a boost to storefronts and devices that employ open standards, allowing them to become competitive enough to challenge the Kindle&#039;s current lead and force Amazon to support the ePub format, thereby reducing Amazon&#039;s ability to create a monopoly. 

Simply delaying release of ALL ebook formats does not penalize Amazon in any way relative to other ebook purveyors and thus will not hinder Amazon&#039;s monopolistic goals. In this I agree with Kent--their behavior is indeed irrational and accomplishes nothing beyond frustrating readers of all ebook devices.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I completely agree that now is the time to take on Amazon and ensure that they are not able to create a monopoly storefront for ebooks. </p>
<p>However, the actions taken by Hatchett and Simon &amp; Schuster do nothing to further this aim. If the aim is to create a heterogeneous ebook ecosystem resistant to monopoly control, then publishers must reward those companies that employ technologies and practices that will lead to that outcome. </p>
<p>As Dan points out above, publishers might do this by releasing ebooks only in ePub format to coincide with the launch of the hardcover edition. If Amazon doesn&#8217;t wish to support ePub, so be it. Let them wait (in fact, let them wait even longer than 3 months). This will provide a boost to storefronts and devices that employ open standards, allowing them to become competitive enough to challenge the Kindle&#8217;s current lead and force Amazon to support the ePub format, thereby reducing Amazon&#8217;s ability to create a monopoly. </p>
<p>Simply delaying release of ALL ebook formats does not penalize Amazon in any way relative to other ebook purveyors and thus will not hinder Amazon&#8217;s monopolistic goals. In this I agree with Kent&#8211;their behavior is indeed irrational and accomplishes nothing beyond frustrating readers of all ebook devices.</p>
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		<title>By: Kent Anderson</title>
		<link>http://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/2009/12/17/churn-in-the-book-space-rational-irrational-behavior-among-book-publishers/#comment-6100</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kent Anderson]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Dec 2009 22:06:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/?p=7409#comment-6100</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I see your point, Bill. I just don&#039;t think it&#039;s the advantage they think it is. It&#039;s a habit. It&#039;s ingrained.

They may hang on to it as long as possible for those reasons, as well.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I see your point, Bill. I just don&#8217;t think it&#8217;s the advantage they think it is. It&#8217;s a habit. It&#8217;s ingrained.</p>
<p>They may hang on to it as long as possible for those reasons, as well.</p>
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		<title>By: Bill Kasdorf</title>
		<link>http://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/2009/12/17/churn-in-the-book-space-rational-irrational-behavior-among-book-publishers/#comment-6099</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bill Kasdorf]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Dec 2009 21:52:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/?p=7409#comment-6099</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[And I forgot to add: what will change their behavior is the economics, when getting the eBooks out there right away DOES optimize their revenue.

I also want to point out that people continue to talk about &quot;books&quot; as if they&#039;re all the same dynamic. The situation for trade publishers is quite different from that of scholarly publishers. I think that for scholarly publishers, eBook + POD is inevitably the way to optimize income and minimize cost (and investment). Not the same, at the present time, for the big trade publishers.--Bill Kasdorf]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>And I forgot to add: what will change their behavior is the economics, when getting the eBooks out there right away DOES optimize their revenue.</p>
<p>I also want to point out that people continue to talk about &#8220;books&#8221; as if they&#8217;re all the same dynamic. The situation for trade publishers is quite different from that of scholarly publishers. I think that for scholarly publishers, eBook + POD is inevitably the way to optimize income and minimize cost (and investment). Not the same, at the present time, for the big trade publishers.&#8211;Bill Kasdorf</p>
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		<title>By: Bill Kasdorf</title>
		<link>http://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/2009/12/17/churn-in-the-book-space-rational-irrational-behavior-among-book-publishers/#comment-6098</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bill Kasdorf]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Dec 2009 21:47:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/?p=7409#comment-6098</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[May I raise my hand again to state what I think is the obvious? This discussion has centered on whether publishers are trying to prevent Amazon from having a monopoly, and whether they&#039;re sticking their heads in the sand (or elsewhere . . .) about where the book industry is going, and whether Amazon is undermining the pricing model -- and all of these are important issues. But let&#039;s step back and look at the original issue of publishers _delaying_ the e-books until after the hardcovers have been out for a while. I really think that from the publisher&#039;s point of view this is very little different from the common practice of delaying the paperback until the hardcovers have been out there a while. Was that because they were insensitive to their customers&#039; desire to buy the paperbacks? Heck no, they were trying to optimize their revenue! Fundamentally, that&#039;s what holding back the e-books is about. It&#039;s not a religious issue. As I mentioned in my earlier comment, the ability to get those stacks of hardcovers out there is currently a distinct advantage the big trade publishers have and they are going to exploit that advantage as long as they can.

--Bill Kasdorf]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>May I raise my hand again to state what I think is the obvious? This discussion has centered on whether publishers are trying to prevent Amazon from having a monopoly, and whether they&#8217;re sticking their heads in the sand (or elsewhere . . .) about where the book industry is going, and whether Amazon is undermining the pricing model &#8212; and all of these are important issues. But let&#8217;s step back and look at the original issue of publishers _delaying_ the e-books until after the hardcovers have been out for a while. I really think that from the publisher&#8217;s point of view this is very little different from the common practice of delaying the paperback until the hardcovers have been out there a while. Was that because they were insensitive to their customers&#8217; desire to buy the paperbacks? Heck no, they were trying to optimize their revenue! Fundamentally, that&#8217;s what holding back the e-books is about. It&#8217;s not a religious issue. As I mentioned in my earlier comment, the ability to get those stacks of hardcovers out there is currently a distinct advantage the big trade publishers have and they are going to exploit that advantage as long as they can.</p>
<p>&#8211;Bill Kasdorf</p>
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		<title>By: Dan Lee</title>
		<link>http://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/2009/12/17/churn-in-the-book-space-rational-irrational-behavior-among-book-publishers/#comment-6097</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dan Lee]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Dec 2009 21:13:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/?p=7409#comment-6097</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[If this were really about limiting Amazon&#039;s current or future control of the market, Simon and Schuster would delay release of ebooks for Amazon but release them at the same time as hardback for other providers.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If this were really about limiting Amazon&#8217;s current or future control of the market, Simon and Schuster would delay release of ebooks for Amazon but release them at the same time as hardback for other providers.</p>
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		<title>By: David Crotty</title>
		<link>http://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/2009/12/17/churn-in-the-book-space-rational-irrational-behavior-among-book-publishers/#comment-6095</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[David Crotty]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Dec 2009 20:05:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/?p=7409#comment-6095</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There&#039;s a big difference between consolidation and monopoly.  It&#039;s possible to consolidate around a format but not leave the market reliant on only one device and one storefront. That&#039;s Amazon&#039;s goal here, and working to prevent it is a smart move.  This is a nascent market and sitting around letting someone else decide your fate doesn&#039;t strike me as the way to go.  Publishers still have the power in this relationship. 

If you buy a Rex, or whatever, can you read your Kindle purchases on that new device? If not, then you&#039;ve created a huge barrier to customer freedom, resulting in a monopoly lock-in.

Do you really see e-book sales increasing from less than 3% of the market to the majority of the market within one year?  That&#039;s a little wildly optimistic.

Bezos&#039; numbers are cherry-picked and essentially meaningless, as I pointed out at length &lt;a href=&quot;http://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/2009/12/10/a-first-look-at-the-nook-an-also-ran-that-can-barely-get-out-of-the-box/#comment-6027&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;here&lt;/a&gt;.  I&#039;ll reiterate:
To counter some of your anecdotal evidence, we (&lt;a href=&quot;http://go2.wordpress.com/?id=725X1342&amp;site=scholarlykitchen.wordpress.com&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cshlpress.com%2F&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;CSHL Press&lt;/a&gt;) have 6 books available through the Kindle store. We’ve sold only a few Kindle copies of each this year, while the print copies of those same books continue to sell very well. The ratio is closer to one to hundreds than Bezos’ alleged 1 to 2 sales rate. And I’m glad you brought that number up because it’s a good example of Amazon’s cherrypicking and misleading use of statistics. What does that mean, “for books available in e-book and print formats, Amazon sells 48 e-books for every 100 print”? Take a look at &lt;a href=&quot;http://go2.wordpress.com/?id=725X1342&amp;site=scholarlykitchen.wordpress.com&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.amazon.com%2Fgp%2Fbestsellers%2Fdigital-text%2Fref%3Dpd_ts_zbs_kinc_ebooks_more%3F%26pf_rd_p%3D489669831%26pf_rd_s%3Dright-5%26pf_rd_t%3D101%26pf_rd_i%3D1286228011%26pf_rd_m%3DATVPDKIKX0DER%26pf_rd_r%3D11TBA56R9YRXC6WA0BX2&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Kindle’s current bestsellers&lt;/a&gt; (not sure if these have changed since I first wrote this response a few days ago). 9 of the top 10 are available for free, and 8 of those books are available in print as well. How does that skew Bezos’ numbers? Amazon has 350,000 plus books in its Kindle store. An impressive number until you realize that &lt;a href=&quot;http://go2.wordpress.com/?id=725X1342&amp;site=scholarlykitchen.wordpress.com&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwiki.answers.com%2FQ%2FHow_many_books_are_published_yearly_in_the_US&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;nearly 300,000 books were published&lt;/a&gt; in the US alone last year, with worldwide estimates being &lt;a href=&quot;http://go2.wordpress.com/?id=725X1342&amp;site=scholarlykitchen.wordpress.com&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ine.es%2Fen%2Fprensa%2Fnp542_en.pdf&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;closer to 2.55 million&lt;/a&gt; (pdf link). The entire Kindle library represents only a tiny fraction of the total number of books available, so can we really generalize much about the vague sales figures offered? Another classic bit of spin was the claim that the Kindle outsells every other product on Amazon, which was dissected &lt;a href=&quot;http://go2.wordpress.com/?id=725X1342&amp;site=scholarlykitchen.wordpress.com&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fgizmodo.com%2F5415219%2Fkindle-outsells-every-other-product-on-amazon-and-what-this-really-means&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;here&lt;/a&gt;. Bezos’ and Amazon’s statements must be taken purely as marketing copy, at least until they want to establish some actual credibility by releasing numbers.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There&#8217;s a big difference between consolidation and monopoly.  It&#8217;s possible to consolidate around a format but not leave the market reliant on only one device and one storefront. That&#8217;s Amazon&#8217;s goal here, and working to prevent it is a smart move.  This is a nascent market and sitting around letting someone else decide your fate doesn&#8217;t strike me as the way to go.  Publishers still have the power in this relationship. </p>
<p>If you buy a Rex, or whatever, can you read your Kindle purchases on that new device? If not, then you&#8217;ve created a huge barrier to customer freedom, resulting in a monopoly lock-in.</p>
<p>Do you really see e-book sales increasing from less than 3% of the market to the majority of the market within one year?  That&#8217;s a little wildly optimistic.</p>
<p>Bezos&#8217; numbers are cherry-picked and essentially meaningless, as I pointed out at length <a href="http://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/2009/12/10/a-first-look-at-the-nook-an-also-ran-that-can-barely-get-out-of-the-box/#comment-6027" rel="nofollow">here</a>.  I&#8217;ll reiterate:<br />
To counter some of your anecdotal evidence, we (<a href="http://go2.wordpress.com/?id=725X1342&amp;site=scholarlykitchen.wordpress.com&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cshlpress.com%2F" rel="nofollow">CSHL Press</a>) have 6 books available through the Kindle store. We’ve sold only a few Kindle copies of each this year, while the print copies of those same books continue to sell very well. The ratio is closer to one to hundreds than Bezos’ alleged 1 to 2 sales rate. And I’m glad you brought that number up because it’s a good example of Amazon’s cherrypicking and misleading use of statistics. What does that mean, “for books available in e-book and print formats, Amazon sells 48 e-books for every 100 print”? Take a look at <a href="http://go2.wordpress.com/?id=725X1342&amp;site=scholarlykitchen.wordpress.com&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.amazon.com%2Fgp%2Fbestsellers%2Fdigital-text%2Fref%3Dpd_ts_zbs_kinc_ebooks_more%3F%26pf_rd_p%3D489669831%26pf_rd_s%3Dright-5%26pf_rd_t%3D101%26pf_rd_i%3D1286228011%26pf_rd_m%3DATVPDKIKX0DER%26pf_rd_r%3D11TBA56R9YRXC6WA0BX2" rel="nofollow">Kindle’s current bestsellers</a> (not sure if these have changed since I first wrote this response a few days ago). 9 of the top 10 are available for free, and 8 of those books are available in print as well. How does that skew Bezos’ numbers? Amazon has 350,000 plus books in its Kindle store. An impressive number until you realize that <a href="http://go2.wordpress.com/?id=725X1342&amp;site=scholarlykitchen.wordpress.com&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwiki.answers.com%2FQ%2FHow_many_books_are_published_yearly_in_the_US" rel="nofollow">nearly 300,000 books were published</a> in the US alone last year, with worldwide estimates being <a href="http://go2.wordpress.com/?id=725X1342&amp;site=scholarlykitchen.wordpress.com&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ine.es%2Fen%2Fprensa%2Fnp542_en.pdf" rel="nofollow">closer to 2.55 million</a> (pdf link). The entire Kindle library represents only a tiny fraction of the total number of books available, so can we really generalize much about the vague sales figures offered? Another classic bit of spin was the claim that the Kindle outsells every other product on Amazon, which was dissected <a href="http://go2.wordpress.com/?id=725X1342&amp;site=scholarlykitchen.wordpress.com&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fgizmodo.com%2F5415219%2Fkindle-outsells-every-other-product-on-amazon-and-what-this-really-means" rel="nofollow">here</a>. Bezos’ and Amazon’s statements must be taken purely as marketing copy, at least until they want to establish some actual credibility by releasing numbers.</p>
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		<title>By: Kent Anderson</title>
		<link>http://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/2009/12/17/churn-in-the-book-space-rational-irrational-behavior-among-book-publishers/#comment-6094</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kent Anderson]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Dec 2009 19:49:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/?p=7409#comment-6094</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Monopolies are bad for consumers, but consolidated industries are normal and usually a sign of efficiency. My point is that it seems panicky to project a monopoly where there will likely only be consolidation. Kindle has a defense built in for publishers, as you note, so they should be even less panicky. There is no &quot;lock in&quot; with a Kindle, in the sense that I can buy a Rex, Sony, Nook, or (soon) PlasticLogic, or use my iPhone, for e-reading. If the e-book market behaves like a hot-adoption market, the multiplier could be more like 50x. Amazon recently stated that for books that have print and e-book versions, they sell 48 e-books for every 100 print books. That&#039;s more than a marginal percentage. Did One-Click create a monopoly around book buying? No, but it helped create a market leader that the book industry probably has celebrated for its efficiency in selling Harry Potter, Dan Brown, and others. I just don&#039;t think a storefront, even on an e-reader, is all that scary.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Monopolies are bad for consumers, but consolidated industries are normal and usually a sign of efficiency. My point is that it seems panicky to project a monopoly where there will likely only be consolidation. Kindle has a defense built in for publishers, as you note, so they should be even less panicky. There is no &#8220;lock in&#8221; with a Kindle, in the sense that I can buy a Rex, Sony, Nook, or (soon) PlasticLogic, or use my iPhone, for e-reading. If the e-book market behaves like a hot-adoption market, the multiplier could be more like 50x. Amazon recently stated that for books that have print and e-book versions, they sell 48 e-books for every 100 print books. That&#8217;s more than a marginal percentage. Did One-Click create a monopoly around book buying? No, but it helped create a market leader that the book industry probably has celebrated for its efficiency in selling Harry Potter, Dan Brown, and others. I just don&#8217;t think a storefront, even on an e-reader, is all that scary.</p>
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