The Barnes & Noble Nook

The days of out-retailing your way into a technology market, ala Microsoft and Windows in the 1990s, may be over. Now, when new devices challenge established devices, they’d better have a distinct functional or aesthetic advantage. Microsoft found this out in the music device market with the Zune, which did many things the iPod did, but not as well and not as beautifully. And for all their retail efforts, the device failed to catch fire or put a dent in the iPod behemoth.

Is the Nook the Zune of e-readers?

Barnes & Noble is to be commended for entering the fray with an eye-catching, appealing device. However, the eye-candy aspects of the Nook aren’t sufficient to rescue it from some design mistakes and technical issues that were show-stoppers for me.

My problems started with just trying to open the damn thing. The tall, flimsy plastic box was hard enough to open, but the tall, sturdy box underneath was even more challenging. Then they finished it off with a plastic bracket you have to pry off to finally free the device. Consumer Reports should put this thing in its packaging Hall of Shame.

A colleague and I were comparing the packaging unfavorably to old-time CD packaging we used to find in retail stores, the kind that had to be opened by an employee with a special key. This comparison might explain some things, since Barnes & Noble plans to sell Nooks in their retail stores. The packaging is clearly meant to deter shoplifting.

After having survived opening the package – seriously, there were moments of forcing and popping plastic when I thought I might sever my carotid with too much follow-through – I finally held the device itself.

Feels good. Looks good. Very cool form factor, nice materials, seems promising.

My disappointment with the packaging put aside, the next thing I had to do was register the device.

That’s too bad.

I’ve owned two Kindles, and both arrived knowing who I was.

Receiving a device that greets me by name and is integrated with my account out of the box is such a nice touch, and lowers the barrier to adoption so significantly, that for Barnes & Noble to have missed this trick is, to me, a significant omission, one that speaks to their bricks-and-clicks limitations. Amazon just ships, so they can customize each device as it moves to your box (also, Amazon doesn’t need to anti-shoplift its packaging). Barnes & Noble is pulling the Nooks off the shelf and mailing them. No magic there.

That said, it was easy enough to register, except for typing in a long email address and password. But the experience pales in comparison, and that’s what’s going on here — the Nook is going to be compared to the Kindle.

The Nook consists of two screen areas, an upper e-ink area for reading, and a lower LCD touchscreen for invoking functions and typing search queries and browsing the store. This design innovation sounded good and interesting in the pre-sale marketing, but there are problems with this approach, the most glaring being precisely that – glare. The LCD screen is bright, very bright. Trying to read the e-ink area over this stymies the human pupil, and is pretty unpleasant. In addition, the navigation being split between two screen areas that don’t match up visually in intensity or color capabilities – so you have to hit icons in the bright, color area to get things in the dim, black-and-white area to respond – is pretty weird.

This seems like poor human-factors design.

I pressed on. Yes, I could find my novels on the Nook. Yes, I could see things and browse.

I was on a train, a perfect use-case for the wireless connectivity.

It worked for a while, then the signal dropped out. I got an error message with coderspeak in it. Then, the Nook stopped working.

I tried to power it off and back on. It flickered. The top icons appeared in the e-ink area, the LCD lit but nothing showed.

It conked out again.

I let it sit for a half-hour. (It was a long train ride.)

Still dead.

Long story short, I’m sending it back.

The problem for Barnes & Noble is that the Nook needed to provide me with an experience that’s better than the Kindle. From my hour with the Nook, I can say that it missed the mark in a variety of ways, from packaging to design touches to interface to stability and functionality.

It’s harder to read on it because of the glaring LCD screen. The software is apparently not completely baked. And other than it being a competitor in a space that needs competition, it offers no clear benefit.

The other challenge for the Nook is that there are increasingly plausible rumors that Apple’s tablet reading device is about to  make an appearance. This will create an upscale bit of competition, perhaps leaving the Nook in the lurch, betwixt and between, a strange hybrid of LCD and e-ink, an e-platypus.

Sorry, Barnes & Noble, the Nook didn’t work for me.

I hope you fare better with it than Microsoft did with the Zune.

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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Should members of the National Academy of Sciences be permitted to control the peer-review process for their own submissions?

If one is concerned with citation impact, the answer is both “no” and “yes.”

A recent article, Systematic Differences in Impact across Publication Tracks at PNAS,” is based on a citation analysis of nearly 2,700 papers published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) between 2004 and 2005.  The study appeared on December 1st in the online journal, PLoS ONE, and is authored by David Rand and Thomas Pfeiffer, both at Harvard University.

Articles submitted to PNAS currently follow three submission tracks:

  1. Direct – authors submit their own manuscripts, which are then subject to double-blind review
  2. Communicated – authors submit their manuscripts to an NAS member, who is responsible for overseeing the peer-review process
  3. Contributed – NAS members may find their own reviewers and submit their own articles

While direct submissions are the norm for most scientific journals, this method is relatively new for PNAS, adopted as recently as 1995.  Since then, direct submissions have become the norm, with communicated submissions waning in popularity.  In order to simplify and streamline the submission process, PNAS will eliminate communicated submission in July 2010.  There has been some scrutiny of the communicated submission track, some arguing that it has allowed unacceptable papers to be published without adequate review.

Citation statistics seem to support this notion.  As a group, Contributed articles significantly underperformed Direct and Communicated articles.  But when Rand and Pfeiffer looked at the distribution of these three submission tracks, they uncovered something more surprising.

The top 10% of member Contributed papers significantly outperformed both Direct and Communicated papers, while the bottom 10% of member Contributed papers greatly underperformed Direct and Communicated papers.  In other words, there was much more diversity in the citation performance of papers submitted by NAS members.

In explaining their results, Rand and Pfeiffer consider whether the Contributed track (where NAS members select their own reviewers and submit their own work) may subject their papers to a softer and more lenient form of review.  This at least would explain the underperforming articles.

But what about the stellar articles?  Rand and Pfeiffer speculate:

[It is] possible that these alternative publishing procedures may facilitate the publication of time-sensitive and groundbreaking work which is of high quality but might suffer under the standard review process.

In other words, an alternate publication track may counter-balance the overly-conservative review practice of high-prestige journals.  In considering the policy implications for journal publishing, Rand and Pfeiffer maintain that there are real benefits for this model:

The benefit of facilitating publication of extremely high-impact Contributed papers could be argued to out-weigh the potential cost of allowing more low quality papers to also be published.

Confusing peer-review with quality of submission?

Rand and Pfeiffer’s main assumption in comparing the three groups of published papers (Direct, Communicated, and Contributed) is that they are similar in all respects.  Indeed, the researchers attempted to control for effects that are known to be associated with higher rates of citations (paper topic classification, author-pays OA, special feature).  Rand and Pfeiffer admit that they would liked to have included press releases, but they are missing the biggest difference in their analysis — namely, Contributed papers are submitted by a small and elite group of established authors who are invited members of the National Academy of Sciences.

Each year, NAS members may elect a scant 72 new members and 18 foreign associates based on recognition of their outstanding past achievements in research.  Once nominated, these names are subject to a complex and rigorous process of evaluation and election.  Those who become an NAS member, and are therefore able to contribute their own work to PNAS, are very unlike the profile of authors who submit through the Direct track.  Rand and Pfeiffer’s analysis contains no controls for author effects such as previous publication and citation performances, or even the number of authors per paper — all variables that are highly predictive of future citations.

We also don’t know if NAS members are selectively submitting only some of their work to PNAS, or if they are opting to use the Direct submission route, as some members do.

Without controlling for author effects, Rand and Pfeiffer are unable to disentangle the effect of author quality from peer-review process, and thereby confusing one for the other.

While this paper is methodologically sound, the lack of any real effort to consider other possible explanations is the real weakness of this study.  It does, however, pose some important questions about member-facilitated peer-review that should be addressed in more detail.

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In addition to indexing news sites, Google is now apparently moving to index the real-time Web, announcing yesterday that the new sources like Twitter and Facebook will be added over the next few days. To get an idea of what this will look like, I’ve inserted the short video below:

Yesterday, I noted how the useful lifespan of news was shrinking to seconds with services like Google News and other feed-based and email alerting systems. Now, with the real-time Web moving mainstream and growing in ubiquity, news as a value proposition outside of the real-time Web seems increasingly unlikely.

As Jason Jones asked in an infamous segment on the Daily Show with Jon Stewart, “Why is ‘aged news’ better than real news?”

Short answer: It’s not.

What might this mean for information specialists, publishers, and editors? Tweets may beat your email alerts, and they’ll be indexed. Embargoes broken by Twitter and Facebook may be increasingly problematic. And perhaps most significantly, the audience will become even more powerful as they become the real-time Web and it becomes part of Google.

Google paid Facebook and Twitter to participate in this search initiative. Did they pay for content? Not exactly, since they don’t know the content they’ll get at any moment. Instead, they paid for permission and audience, for integration into these real-time watering holes. But people can’t be commoditized like the news, which points to how social media will ultimately become commercial in a big way.

The age of publisher-centric commodity information is ending.

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Eric E. Schmidt, Chairman and CEO of Google In...
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The brouhaha created by Rupert Murdoch’s gripes about Google has uncorked a simmering set of hopes and dreams from traditionalists. Basically, the hope can be stated as, Can we go back to an age of publisher-centric content distribution?

Google’s CEO, Eric Schmidt, published an editorial in Rupert Murdoch’s Wall Street Journal last week explaining a few things to those dreamers who think the innovation cake can be unbaked:

  1. News content is only a small fraction of all of Google’s content, and the ad revenue Google generates proximal to news content is relatively tiny (aka, dispensable).
  2. Google sends billions of users to news sources every month.
  3. Google doesn’t show complete news content, just headlines and a line or two, except when an agreement allows otherwise.
  4. Google doesn’t control any publication’s pay gates.

Schmidt ends the editorial by referring to a Buggles‘ 1979 hit:

Video didn’t kill the radio star. It created a whole new additional industry.

Schmidt’s analogy is rhetorically useful, but it doesn’t get to the bottom of the issues facing news providers.

While the wishful thinking of news providers might be fulfilled by withholding the content from the search engines and extracting revenue deals in exchange for crawling and indexing that content, the money will never materialize because access to news isn’t controllable in the modern information age.

The issue facing news providers isn’t that the news sources are being exploited by search engines, it’s that the useful lifespan of proprietary news has decreased from days (pre-newspaper), to hours (newspaper and network news) to minutes (cable news) to seconds (blogs, search, Twitter, Facebook).

Imagine the state of news if the protectionists were to prevail — a story is published in the Wall Street Journal and not indexed in Google; a savvy reader Twitters about it or writes and publishes a quick blog post; the tweet or post are indexed; within seconds, awareness exists outside the news source, and the search engines can effectively index the topic.

It’s the approach of the real-time Web.

The real-time Web may kill the radio star, to continue Schmidt’s analogy.

Another interesting angle is that while Murdoch and others may complain there isn’t enough advertising in the world to support online news, the Schmidt editorial is not behind a pay wall and has four ads against it.

That’s four ads for one story. Imagine the print equivalent — the article would probably be on a broadsheet with other stories, and perhaps one ad facing the page of news. Not a targeted ad, not a clickable ad, (probably) not a color ad, and definitely not a video ad.

Instead, a static, non-interactive, and boring ad.

It seems the problem isn’t about ads per story, or ad effectiveness or capabilities, but price per ad.

Personally, I’m suspecting that a more productive approach for Murdoch and his cohorts might be to jack up online ad prices dramatically and weather the storm until advertisers acknowledge that online ads are more valuable than print ads.

Until that happens, online will be undervalued. And that’s the pricing issue here.

Murdoch and his ilk should advocate for the value of the audience they have, not the content they create, and push the value hard, up to the level of print audience, if not higher.

As we approach 2010, to do otherwise is irrational.

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National Geographic has long been a model of publisher innovation, with well-known diversification approaches that have included international editions, television, and brand extensions for children. Last week, National Geographic made two announcements that clearly show management is not asleep at the wheel — the closure of a decade-old magazine (National Geographic Adventure) and a new sales/content partnership with ScienceBlogs.

SSP members may recall Adam Bly of SEED Media, which owns ScienceBlogs. He provided the keynote at this year’s annual meeting.

The partnership is based on ad sales and content sharing, with National Geographic helping with ad sales and ScienceBlogs providing content to nationalgeographic.com.

It’s important to note these are online ads. Last week, SEED Media announced that their eponymous magazine, SEED, will not carry advertising for the foreseeable future. According to Bly:

Journalism is not our profit center. It’s not going to be our profit center. The whole magazine model is completely broken.

One of the more interesting details found in the announcements is that ScienceBlogs claims it is already profitable, so this is really a case of strength meeting strength — online.

It’s also probably based somewhat on the “if you can’t beat them, join them” approach, with National Geographic seeing the content set at ScienceBlogs in that light and ScienceBlogs seeing the ad sales similarly.

This isn’t the first partnership for ScienceBlogs. In 2007, Hubert in Germany partnered with ScienceBlogs to launch a German version of the service. A similar initiative in Brazil is underway.

I personally think this is gratifying to see. Blogs, once dismissed as vitriolic noise of self-involved hacks, have become a mainstay of written communication and powerful, web-native content management platforms. Seeing deals like this, along with profitability, shows what can be done when people share a vision and understand the possibilities created by new approaches toward creating and engaging audiences.

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A video of a new tablet reading device was released earlier this week. It shows how Sports Illustrated might be realized as a full-color, interactive, multimedia property.

It might also be the first glance at an Apple tablet reading device. Rumors at London Online this week are that such a device is closer to reality than ever, but this might also be idle pub talk.

Whoever makes this device — whether it’s Apple or not — success will largely depend on price, speed, and how hot it gets as you hold it. Oddly, I think, the content itself won’t be as critical to its success.

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Card catalogs
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A few years ago I began to ponder the condition and fate of the university press world. This  culminated in an article I wrote for the Journal of Electronic Publishing called “The Wisdom of Oz:  The Role of the University Press in Scholarly Communications.” After I wrote that essay, I began to look around for some means of improving the fortunes of the press world and hit on the idea of creating a comprehensive online catalog for all university press titles, a catalog that could serve as a marketing tool, e-commerce site, and source of bibliographical data for other projects whose aims were not so plainly economic.

It was my good fortune to receive the support of the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, which underwrote a feasibility study that I wrote under the sponsorship of the Monterey Institute for Technology and Education (MITE). That study was submitted to MITE and Mellon several months ago.  As it delved into the specific offerings of vendors and included some confidential information, it was not suitable for publication.  Subsequently, I edited the document into a longish essay, which includes a summary of a survey of about 30 university presses.  That abridged document is now available online at Scribd and at MITE’s own Web site .

The project is now moving forward. A prototype is being built (the URL will be published shortly), and several presses have already sent in data feeds for their titles.  (Any not-for-profit academic publisher that wishes to participate in the project should contact me offline, and not just presses affiliated with universities.  For-profit scholarly publishers may be invited to participate at a later time.)

The catalog will launch into a very different world from the one that existed at the time of its conception.  There was no Kindle or iPhone at that time, nor were many scholarly publishers looking beyond the dissemination of PDFs intended to be printed out and read at the edge of the network.   Google had not yet begun its mass digitization project, nor had anyone even hinted that Google would shortly become, through Google Editions, a central player in the publishing landscape.

If so much can change in 4-5 years, why would we not expect that comparable changes are afoot even now? On the Scholarly Kitchen blog a month ago, I referred to this as “the Google decade.”  The moderator silently and innocently changed “decade” to “decades,” but, no, decade is what I meant.  Google (and Amazon, Apple, and any other “hot” company right now) has no more claim on the future of scholarly communications than AOL had even a few years ago.  We should not expect that Amazon can do it better always, whatever “it” is.

Comments on the catalog project would be much appreciated.

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Rupert Murdoch - World Economic Forum Annual M...
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Rupert Murdoch, never one to shy away from controversy, has stirred up the Internet in recent weeks with his declaration that he’s planning to move all his online properties behind a subscription paywall, and that he’s considering blocking Google’s access to the sites. Of course, this is unheard of in an era where we’ve constantly had it drilled into our heads that visibility is paramount, that traffic equals revenue, and Google is the lifeblood of any publishing venture. Not surprisingly, when the news broke, the usual new media pundits reacted with outrage, portraying Murdoch as a crazy old dinosaur who just doesn’t get it:

Rupert Murdoch has it backwards. You don’t charge the search engines to send people to articles on your site, you pay them.

This one is impressive as well:

Rupert isn’t a technophobic loon who will send his media empire to the bottom of the ocean while waging war on search engines. Instead, he’s an out-of-touch moustache-twirler who’s set his sights on remaking the web as a toll booth (with him in the collector’s seat)

Once the furor from the “information wants to be free” crowd died down, and once word leaked out that Microsoft was in discussions with Murdoch about making Bing the exclusive search engine allowed to spider his content, he wasn’t looking quite so backwards after all. Other publishers are starting to show interest in the same sorts of deal. Erik Sherman took a look at the numbers and concluded the following:

Too many are sustaining themselves on wishful thinking, not real analysis. . . . It’s a case of where much popular opinion is based on a vague sense of how things “should” work in the new world. But as happened during the tech bubble, the value of new economic and business models may have been over-sold, and the insight of cold fact under-appreciated.

Despite what you’ve been told, traffic does not equal revenue. Sherman notes that for as little as $100 million (pocket change to Microsoft), they could completely subsidize all of the ad revenue Google sends to the top 50 news publishers. As Murdoch himself notes:

The fact is there’s not enough advertising in the world to go around to make all the Web sites profitable. And we’d rather have fewer people coming to our Web site, but paying.

This is really the key here. Having lots and lots of traffic does you no good if you can’t monetize it. It’s just extra bandwidth costs. Having a massive drop in readership can actually help save a publication, and here’s a case where that was exactly what happened:

Web traffic plummeted from about 15,000 views a month to about 8,000. . . . It was a success because the Hobbs News Sun’s website went from losing money—it generated no revenue and occupied employees for hours each day—to making enough money to sustain itself.

The author of the post notes that their strategy only works in particular situations:

To succeed with paywalls, then, publishers need not only an established monopoly on something valuable (local news, scoops, reporting quality) but also a plan to translate that into advertiser interest. Paywalls alone, unless they are ridiculously expensive, just won’t be enough.

The question, then, is whether search engine subsidies would be enough to allow a major publisher to overcome these hurdles. Mark Cuban (sometimes it takes a crazy billionaire to understand another one) notes that newspapers have very little to lose here, and that there’s a strong potential for gain for both Bing and groups like AP and Reuters.

Thinking in terms of scholarly publishing, most journals do indeed have an established monopoly on something valuable, and our paywalls have succeeded (some would argue that this is because they are ridiculously expensive, as so far online advertising is failing to pay the bills). But I’m surprised we haven’t seen more interest in dealmaking like this from the open access (OA) crowd, nor from the creators of community database resources. It seems like there should be some common interests here. OA-supporting researchers and publishers want to find ways to make their publications freely available. Search engines thrive on giving away products for free and using them to sell advertising. Currently, many important community resources are in danger of disappearing due to lack of funds. The author-pays business model has not shown itself to be sustainable for low-volume, high-editorial-oversight publications.

Could an exclusivity deal with a search engine or an advertiser be the missing link here to making these things viable?   It’s an interesting possibility. We’ve seen many contenders trying to become the search engine for scientists. Are any of them well-heeled enough to subsidize exclusive content?

There are the obvious worries about independence and conflicts of interest.  It’s also unclear if traffic to science journal articles and database entries would generate enough advertising revenue to make a subsidy profitable for a search engine.   Even Google seems to have admitted that there are some areas where advertising can’t cover the costs of content acquisition.  It seems like blocking access to particular search engines would be anathema to the philosophy behind OA. And, since a journal must attract authors, having limited visibility might make for a tough sell. But it’s important for publishers of all types to think about alternative business models in such revolutionary times.

And as Murdoch’s moves are proving, challenging the common wisdom might not be so crazy after all.

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A&P, COFFEE, SANTA CLAUS
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As the holiday season approaches, many of us will be writing Santa with special requests for gifts.

All I want for Christmas is a library card.

Yes, yes, of course I have a library card, but that card is to my hometown public library.  I love our little library, but what I really want is remote access to the digital collections of the University of California,  one of whose campuses is a mere 100 yards from my house.  As I do not have a university affiliation, the only way I can use the digital collections is to go on campus and use a computer within the walls of the library.  This would not be so bad if I were involved with a research project that required me to spend the better part of a day at the library, but for the most part my research needs are one-shot questions — the need to look up a single article from a journal, perhaps, or a desire to check out the etymology of one word in the Oxford English Dictionary.  Remote access would be a godsend — or a Santa-send.

It’s mind-boggling that I cannot obtain it at any price.

Santa, I have been real good this year!

I can hear the objections from non-elves already.  I could purchase individual subscriptions to the publications, but no one who has added up these figures seriously believes that individual subscriptions are an option except in those cases where the individual requires not casual use of a publication but concerted, professional use (e.g., a library consultant who might subscribe to a journal on collection-building).  The cost of an annual subscription for individuals to the OED, for example, is $295 per year. If you look up a handful of terms in the OED each week (a credible definition of non-professional use), you begin to do the arithmetic:  $3 per look-up?  $5?  For this reason, most individuals make a default decision — subscribe to a handful of heavily used publications, get unauthorized access to materials that are too dear to purchase, and use the free, if often unreliable, resources of the open Web the rest of the time.  I suspect that the goal of unauthorized access accounts for a certain number of liaisons with librarians that are, as they say, “not in the catalog.”

Objection #2:  That’s why we need open access.  Maybe so, but it is hard to envision a method by which the world’s publications suddenly became available free of charge for the casual user.  Whatever one thinks of the social or moral aspects of the world of publishing, as a practical matter, access is a privilege.

Many people are knocking at the door, but only a few (those with access privileges) get in. As a businessman, I sense an opportunity here: How to monetize the pounding at the door?

One proposed solution comes from the library world.  Many librarians would like to be able to grant remote access to their collections for their institutions’ alumni, and alumni are willing to pay an additional, if modest, fee for these rights.  On the surface, this sounds like a neat solution.  A library already has much of the infrastructure in place:  subscriptions to publications, a means to make digital collections available remotely, and authorization schemes to determine who is and who is not an authorized user, not to mention years of experience in determining what materials are worth including in a collection.  Thus, a publisher that charges, say, $1,000 for an annual subscription to a library may grant alumni rights for an additional 10%.  This is potentially found money for the publisher and an additional service that universities could provide to their alumni, who may demonstrate their gratitude with donations—which could be used to purchase more publications.

On closer examination, however, it becomes clear that enabling libraries to become broader resellers of materials is not in the publishers’ interests.  The reason for this is that however one defines the relationship between a library and its parent university, a library is not the center of the universe.  (Whenever I talk to librarians about this relationship, I’m reminded of the incessant punning on “universe”/”university” in John Barth’s novel “Giles Goat-boy”.)  Alumni go out in the world to take jobs at corporations like Merck, Microsoft, Fujitsu, and countless others, where publishers have assiduously developed markets for their materials. An undergraduate who gets access to Lexis-Nexis may go on to become a senior partner at a Wall Street law firm, where the fees paid to Lexis-Nexis are staggeringly high.  If undergraduates carried their institutional access privileges with them through life, the markets for the sale of publications to the corporate and government sectors would collapse—and likely lead to a huge price increase to academic libraries to offset the loss.  While some publishers, particularly those with little or nothing in the way of corporate or government sales, may eventually decide to grant alumni rights to libraries, this will at best be a solution with gaping holes.  So, once again we are back to a library bypass strategy, which, I repeat for the umpteenth time,  is the single most pressing item in the world of scholarly communications today.

But still there is that knocking at the door.  It’s time for publishers to join hands and create a consortium whose aim is to monetize users like me, people who have a need to get access to the vast collections of a major university library, but whose anticipated use of any single publication is modest.  This is a prospective market segment that will pay for information—it is, in other words, a market and not an unfunded social need.  Consortia have served publishers well in other areas; consider CrossRef,  the Copyright Clearance Center, and the recent development of CourseSmart, a joint venture of the major college textbook publishers, whose goal is to advance the sale and use of digital textbooks.   A carefully planned joint venture could open up a new market segment.

Let’s imagine that all the publishers that currently market digital resources to academic libraries were to participate in the consortium.  For the price of a single subscription, an individual would then get remote access to a digital library on the scale of Harvard’s or the University of California’s.  The cost of a subscription would not be inexpensive — $500 a year?  $1,000?  Identifying the right price (or prices, as there could be a tiered model for users who access the service more heavily) would be an interesting exercise; perhaps there could be some guidance by deriving the allocated cost per undergraduate for the use of the library at a research institution.  But whatever the price, the proceeds, after subtracting the cost of operating the service, would be shared pro rata by the participating publishers.  My $1,000 subscription might yield $50 to Oxford University Press, $75 to Elsevier, and $2 to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

The reason publishers resist this kind of formulation is that they mistakenly add up the value of all the content they create (which is indeed worth a tidy sum) and confuse that with the amount of time an individual actually has to spend with any single publication.  Few people who are not themselves academics or professional researchers spend many hours doing research.  They can’t, as their days are filled with meetings, phone calls, email, and traipsing to and from airports and trade shows.  The question for publishers to determine is not how much is a publication worth but how much of an “information tax” they can reasonably impose on one hour of my time.

There are publications for which this will not work, namely, any publication that already has an established consumer market.  Let’s say (picking a few publications at random) that the Economist, the Chronicle of Higher Education, the Wall Street Journal, and the New York Review of Books were to be included in the service.  This would lead to many cancellations of subscriptions to those products in favor of the omnibus subscription to the consortial service (assuming no atavistic yearning for print editions).  The profile of a target publication for this service is one that is delivered electronically, has a casual readership beyond the world of specialists, and has little in the way of individual subscribers.

Even if publishers are cool to the idea of working jointly, they should consider the comment of Professor Stevan Harnad, who, speaking of another program to reach a new market segment, notes that such initiatives could hamper the movement for open access to research literature:

The current bids to “monetize” the existing OA content — whether from OA journals or from OA repositories — are likely to reduce the momentum (from both users and authors) to provide that missing OA content, as well as to reduce the institutional and funder momentum to mandate that they provide it.

I couldn’t have said it better.

Santa, it’s time to make the North Pole into a sustainable business.

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The idea for this post was inspired by a simple crossed-out word on a post by Andrew Sullivan of the Atlantic, writing about a coffee-table book of photography he’s self-publishing:

That should send some shivers up the spines of the book publishing marketing industry.

To publish his book, Sullivan’s asking potential readers to pledge a purchase, then using the number of pledges to justify an offset press run and determine a price — the more pledges, the larger the run, and the lower the price per copy.

Sullivan’s entry into self-publishing is just another step toward the day when a major author — a Stephen King, a J.K. Rowling — will cross the threshold and open the floodgates.

In the meantime, book publishers that have lost their monopolies over commerce, distribution, and manufacturing still have one or two areas left to defend — marketing and editorial craft.

Are book publishers taking advantage of this?

Only under withering criticism.

Harlequin recently started an imprint called Harlequin Horizons, where authors who have romance novels that Harlequin won’t publish using a traditional approach can still opt to get self-published using the Horizons imprint. Harlequin has also started an ePub imprint  and an editorial services arm. Some see this as exploiting naive authors, as Harlequin diluting their brand, or as a cynical attempt to make money from their slush pile. It also has the potential to flood the market with more books. As one agent says:

I can’t help but think that more books published (and in the marketplace) is not what the industry needs. It already can’t support the number of books currently being published in any given year.

Yet, publishers are in business to make money, and services trimmed of the headaches and expenses of manufacturing, consignment distribution, and returns are bound to be more profitable. It’s why self-publishing is growing so fast.

But the concerns about a flooded marketplace, a lack of brand credentialing (even for romance novels), and charges of exploiting authors resonate because there are emerging cognates in scholarly publishing. And while they may claim that the changes in distribution, manufacturing, and commerce allows them to move seamlessly into such ventures just like consumer publishers, the problems from lower standards of credentialing are more severe in our world. Consumer publishing can allow for growth in these areas because it’s about entertainment and opinion, for the most part — but even then, the guardians of quality are squawking about Harlequin’s moves, and others. Scholarly publishing is about reporting unbiased facts. Why aren’t we up in arms about some of these same kinds of initiatives?

Even changes in how copyright is realized are making the slope more slippery. In an interesting post, Rob Richards looks back over a decade of DRM and copyright concerns, and concludes that the gaping hole created by the unanticipated expansion of fair use to cover major zones of content exploitation means that publishers will focus on services, so:

. . . mainstream publishing declines into a non-credentialed services industry, with enormous numbers of providers, engaged in fierce and unrelenting competition . . . . Judge Posner & Professor Landes long ago predicted what kinds of literary works were likely to dominate the market in the (effective) absence of copyright: “There would be increased incentives to create faddish, ephemeral, and otherwise transitory works because the gains from being first in the market for such works would be likely to exceed the losses from absence of copyright protection.”

The damage self-publishing might wreak in consumer publishing stems from a flooded market of ephemeral materials, but this effect is largely speculative — the consumer market is already flooded, and many good books have entered the mainstream through self-publishing while many niche titles have thrived. Consumer publishing may survive because credentialing isn’t as important to readers or trust.

The damage self-publishing might wreak in scholarly communications is potentially much greater. Author-pays initiatives can flood the market, cause credentialing confusion, exploit naive authors, and erode trust in scholarly publishing.

Why aren’t we worried about this?

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